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Chicago’s daily bloodbaths to end soon


Much has been said the past few years about Chicago’s 500+ shootings every year. They forget that the rate was 900+ in the 1990s. Nevertheless, Chicago’s violence has been fueled by the fact that, for decades, it has had the strongest “gun control” measures of any American city for thousands of kilometers around. This has had the effect of rendering law-abiding citizens helpless against armed criminals, who by definition don’t care what the laws are.

That’s about to change, since “shall issue” concealed carry weapons permits are coming to Chicago, over the strident protests of Illinois’ Democrat governor and Chicago’s Democrat mayor. “Shall issue” means that anyone can get a concealed weapons permit if they take the required training and pay the required fees.

That, in turn, will generate the “halo effect,” where criminals are no longer certain that their intended victims can’t fight back, and therefore those criminals are less likely to attack.

I expect Chicago’s violent crime will drop 10 percent in the first year of concealed carry, and another 10 to 20 percent within 3 years. Law enforcement, academics and of course Chicago politicians will express bafflement at the decline, or point to spurious data like lower unemployment or cooler summer weather as being the cause of the decline in Chicago’s violence. But you and I will know the real reason for the decline.

We’ll revisit this topic in the coming years, to see how accurate my forecast is.

UPDATE: The Illinois legislature on Tuesday, July 9th overrode Democrat Governor Pat Quinn’s efforts to sabotage the concealed-carry legislation, and voted it into law. Illinois is the last of the 50 United States to implement concealed carry of weapons. Now the Illinois State Police, which are responsible for administrating the permit process, have 180 days, or until January 5, 2014, to begin making applications for concealed-carry permits available to the public, although the ISP will begin approving certified instructors and training courses within 60 days, or by September 7th, 2013.  Unfortunately Illinois will not honor permits issued by other states (a practice called “reciprocity“), since Illinois requires 16 hours of combined classroom and range instruction, more than any other state. Frequently Asked Questions answered here.

Illinois expects at least 300,000 people to apply for permits within the first year of the law being in effect. I think it will be more than that. Illinois residents are tired of crime, and tired of being held hostage by Chicago’s socialist kleptocracy. It’s long past time for them to be free.

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